Preseason Rankings
UNC Greensboro
Southern
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#84
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.8#212
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 2.1% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.7% 3.7% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.7% 40.3% 26.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.1% 10.9% 3.4%
Average Seed 11.3 10.9 12.3
.500 or above 94.2% 97.1% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 96.6% 92.0%
Conference Champion 39.2% 43.6% 30.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four2.4% 2.8% 1.6%
First Round34.5% 38.8% 26.0%
Second Round11.3% 13.7% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 4.4% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.5% 0.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Neutral) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 39 - 7
Quad 412 - 120 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 127   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-71 66%    
  Nov 27, 2020 124   Winthrop W 78-74 65%    
  Dec 02, 2020 90   Duquesne W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 02, 2020 302   Prairie View W 79-64 91%    
  Dec 04, 2020 26   @ Louisville L 66-75 20%    
  Dec 15, 2020 307   South Carolina Upstate W 82-64 95%    
  Dec 19, 2020 215   @ Elon W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 22, 2020 309   @ N.C. A&T W 81-69 86%    
  Dec 30, 2020 317   @ The Citadel W 87-73 89%    
  Jan 02, 2021 142   East Tennessee St. W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 06, 2021 148   @ Wofford W 71-68 58%    
  Jan 09, 2021 183   Mercer W 76-65 82%    
  Jan 13, 2021 182   @ Western Carolina W 80-75 66%    
  Jan 16, 2021 301   @ Samford W 84-72 84%    
  Jan 20, 2021 148   Wofford W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 23, 2021 158   @ Chattanooga W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 27, 2021 83   @ Furman L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 30, 2021 276   VMI W 80-64 91%    
  Feb 03, 2021 317   The Citadel W 90-70 95%    
  Feb 06, 2021 301   Samford W 87-69 93%    
  Feb 10, 2021 83   Furman W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 13, 2021 183   @ Mercer W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 17, 2021 276   @ VMI W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 21, 2021 158   Chattanooga W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 24, 2021 182   Western Carolina W 83-72 81%    
  Feb 27, 2021 142   @ East Tennessee St. W 69-67 57%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.4 10.2 10.6 7.9 2.9 39.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.4 7.2 7.9 4.7 1.1 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.8 3.8 1.1 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 6.0 8.7 11.3 13.1 14.4 15.0 11.8 7.9 2.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
17-1 100.0% 7.9    7.6 0.3
16-2 90.4% 10.6    8.7 1.9 0.0
15-3 67.8% 10.2    6.4 3.5 0.3
14-4 37.5% 5.4    2.3 2.4 0.7 0.0
13-5 14.0% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.2% 39.2 28.4 9.0 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.9% 93.6% 65.1% 28.5% 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 81.8%
17-1 7.9% 80.5% 57.2% 23.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 54.5%
16-2 11.8% 63.4% 49.4% 14.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 27.6%
15-3 15.0% 47.3% 40.9% 6.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.9 10.7%
14-4 14.4% 34.0% 31.4% 2.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.0 9.5 3.8%
13-5 13.1% 23.6% 23.3% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.0 0.3%
12-6 11.3% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 0.0%
11-7 8.7% 11.9% 11.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.6
10-8 6.0% 9.3% 9.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.5
9-9 3.9% 5.7% 5.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.7
8-10 2.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.4
7-11 1.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 35.7% 30.1% 5.7% 11.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.9 4.8 9.2 7.5 3.5 1.1 0.3 64.3 8.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 3.0 19.5 27.0 15.1 16.1 20.0 2.1 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 92.4% 4.2 15.2 7.6 8.6 24.8 8.6 17.1 1.0 1.9 7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 5.2 17.6 15.7 5.9 2.0 23.5 17.6 17.6